The latest Nov job report showed that US payrolls rose 199.000, and unemployment rate falls to 3.7%, coming down a little bit. All these are coming in a crucial time for the Fed, days before the final rate decision of the year.
Right now more key indicators suggest that US economy will have a soft landing rather than recession, which is also the common consensus. The answer is most likely yes, however it is not possible that the Fed will gonna cut until late 2024, which also will depend on the data and the progress to fight inflation.
Consensus forecasts coming into 2023 are quite negative, a lot of people were predicating a recession. The reality is that things progress in a contrarian way. The upside surprise has led people to be overly optimistic about 2024, and the consensus right now is too optimistic about the global economy.
Maybe November's solid jobs report did help to clear the runway a little more, but it did not assure that the economy will come in for a soft landing. Still, the solid report couldn't dispense the lingering feeling that the economy isn't out of the woods yet. The fear primarily comes from worries that the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate increases haven't exacted their full toll and still could trigger a painful downturn.
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