Watchtower Landing

Soft landing or no landing?

In terms of the outlook of the US economy, there are three distinguished points: hard landing, soft landing, and no landing. It seems like the odd of hard landing has been ruled out, the focus of debate right now is soft landing or no landing.

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Some economists argue that in many ways, US economy already has a soft landing, the Fed has threaded the needle of the economy very artfully with a kind of “Goldilocks scenario”.

Gross domestic product grew at a much faster-than-expected 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter, fueled by a solid job market and strong consumer spending. However, inflation is still above the central bank's 2% target, and that also opens the door to a "no-landing scenario”.

So what a 'no landing' scenario means? "No landing” means above-trend growth, and also above-trend inflation, that is so-called "overheating” economy.

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